Under-five mortality: spatial-temporal clusters in Ifakara HDSS in South-eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Childhood mortality remains an important subject, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where levels are still unacceptably high. To achieve the set Millennium Development Goals 4, calls for comprehensive application of the proven cost-effective interventions. Understanding spatial clustering of childhood mortality can provide a guide in targeting the interventions in a more strategic approach to the population where mortality is highest and the interventions are most likely to make an impact.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud Annual child mortality rates were calculated for each village, using person-years observed as the denominator. Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was used for the identification and testing of childhood mortality clusters. All under-five deaths that occurred within a 10-year period from 1997 to 2006 were included in the analysis. Villages were used as units of clusters; all 25 health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) villages in the Ifakara health and demographic surveillance area were included.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Of the 10 years of analysis, statistically significant spatial clustering was identified in only 2 years (1998 and 2001). In 1998, the statistically significant cluster (p < 0.01) was composed of nine villages. A total of 106 childhood deaths were observed against an expected 77.3. The other statistically significant cluster (p < 0.05) identified in 2001 was composed of only one village. In this cluster, 36 childhood deaths were observed compared to 20.3 expected. Purely temporal analysis indicated that the year 2003 was a significant cluster (p < 0.05). Total deaths were 393 and expected were 335.8. Spatial-temporal analysis showed that nine villages were identified as statistically significant clusters (p < 0.05) for the period covering January 1997-December 1998. Total observed deaths in this cluster were 205 while 150.7 were expected.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud There is evidence of spatial clustering in childhood mortality within the Ifakara HDSS. Further investigations are needed to explore the source of clustering and identify strategies of reaching the cluster population with the existing effective interventions. However, that should happen alongside delivery of interventions to the broader population

Improving pneumonia case-management in Benin: a randomized trial of a multi-faceted intervention to support health worker adherence to Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pneumonia is a leading cause of death among children under five years of age. The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness strategy can improve the quality of care for pneumonia and other common illnesses in developing countries, but adherence to these guidelines could be improved. We evaluated an intervention in Benin to support health worker adherence to the guidelines after training, focusing on pneumonia case management.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a randomized trial. After a health facility survey in 1999 to assess health care quality before Integrated Management of Childhood Illness training, health workers received training plus either study supports (job aids, non-financial incentives and supervision of workers and supervisors) or "usual" supports. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 2001, 2002 and 2004. Outcomes were indicators of health care quality for Integrated Management-defined pneumonia. Further analyses included a graphical pathway analysis and multivariable logistic regression modelling to identify factors influencing case-management quality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed 301 consultations of children with non-severe pneumonia that were performed by 128 health workers in 88 public and private health facilities. Although outcomes improved in both intervention and control groups, we found no statistically significant difference between groups. However, training proceeded slowly, and low-quality care from untrained health workers diluted intervention effects. Per-protocol analyses suggested that health workers with training plus study supports performed better than those with training plus usual supports (20.4 and 19.2 percentage-point improvements for recommended treatment [p = 0.08] and "recommended or adequate" treatment [p = 0.01], respectively). Both groups tended to perform better than untrained health workers. Analyses of treatment errors revealed that incomplete assessment and difficulties processing clinical findings led to missed pneumonia diagnoses, and missed diagnoses led to inadequate treatment. Increased supervision frequency was associated with better care (odds ratio for recommended treatment = 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.13.9] per additional supervisory visit).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Integrated Management of Childhood Illness training was useful, but insufficient, to achieve high-quality pneumonia case management. Our study supports led to additional improvements, although large gaps in performance still remained. A simple graphical pathway analysis can identify specific, common errors that health workers make in the case-management process; this information could be used to target quality improvement activities, such as supervision (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00510679).</p

Malaria risk and access to prevention and treatment in the paddies of the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

Background: The Kilombero Valley is a highly malaria-endemic agricultural area in south-eastern Tanzania. Seasonal flooding of the valley is favourable to malaria transmission. During the farming season, many households move to distant field sites (shamba in Swahili) in the fertile river floodplain for the cultivation of rice. In the shamba, people live for several months in temporary shelters, far from the nearest health services. This study assessed the impact of seasonal movements to remote fields on malaria risk and treatment-seeking behaviour. Methods: A longitudinal study followed approximately 100 randomly selected farming households over six months. Every household was visited monthly and whereabouts of household members, activities in the fields, fever cases and treatment seeking for recent fever episodes were recorded. Results: Fever incidence rates were lower in the shamba compared to the villages and moving to the shamba did not increase the risk of having a fever episode. Children aged 1-4 years, who usually spend a considerable amount of time in the shamba with their caretakers, were more likely to have a fever than adults (odds ratio = 4.47, 95 confidence interval 2.35-8.51). Protection with mosquito nets in the fields was extremely good (98 antimalarials was uncommon. Despite the long distances to health services, 55.8 health facility, while home-management was less common (37 17.4-50.5). Conclusion: Living in the shamba does not appear to result in a higher fever-risk. Mosquito nets usage and treatment of fever in health facilities reflect awareness of malaria. Inability to obtain drugs in the fields may contribute to less irrational use of drugs but may pose an additional burden on poor farming households. A comprehensive approach is needed to improve access to treatment while at the same time assuring rational use of medicines and protecting fragile livelihoods

Decreased availability of antimalarials in the private sector following the policy change from chloroquine to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Malaria control strategies emphasize the need for prompt and effective treatment of malaria episodes. To increase treatment efficacy, Tanzania changed its first-line treatment from chloroquine to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 2001. The effect of this policy change on the availability of antimalarials was studied in rural south-eastern Tanzania. METHODS: In 2001 and 2004, the study area was searched for commercial outlets selling drugs and their stocks were recorded. Household information was obtained from the local Demographic Surveillance System. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2004, the number of general shops stocking drugs increased by 15% and the number of drug stores nearly doubled. However, the proportion of general shops stocking antimalarials dropped markedly, resulting in an almost 50% decrease of antimalarial selling outlets. This led to more households being located farther from a treatment source. In 2004, five out of 25 studied villages with a total population of 13,506 (18%) had neither a health facility, nor a shop as source of malaria treatment. CONCLUSION: While the change to SP resulted in a higher treatment efficacy, it also led to a decreased antimalarial availability in the study area. Although there was no apparent impact on overall antimalarial use, the decline in access may have disproportionately affected the poorest and most remote groups. In view of the imminent policy change to artemisinin-based combination therapy these issues need to be addressed urgently if the benefits of this new class of antimalarials are to be extended to the whole population

Obstacles to prompt and effective malaria treatment lead to low community-coverage in two rural districts of Tanzania

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Malaria is still a leading child killer in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, access to prompt and effective malaria treatment, a mainstay of any malaria control strategy, is sub-optimal in many settings. Little is known about obstacles to treatment and community-effectiveness of case-management strategies. This research quantified treatment seeking behaviour and access to treatment in a highly endemic rural Tanzanian community. The aim was to provide a better understanding of obstacles to treatment access in order to develop practical and cost-effective interventions.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud We conducted community-based treatment-seeking surveys including 226 recent fever episodes in 2004 and 2005. The local Demographic Surveillance System provided additional household information. A census of drug retailers and health facilities provided data on availability and location of treatment sources.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud After intensive health education, the biomedical concept of malaria has largely been adopted by the community. 87.5% (78.2-93.8) of the fever cases in children and 80.7% (68.1-90.0) in adults were treated with one of the recommended antimalarials (at the time SP, amodiaquine or quinine). However, only 22.5% (13.9-33.2) of the children and 10.5% (4.0-21.5) of the adults received prompt and appropriate antimalarial treatment. Health facility attendance increased the odds of receiving an antimalarial (OR = 7.7) but did not have an influence on correct dosage. The exemption system for under-fives in public health facilities was not functioning and drug expenditures for children were as high in health facilities as with private retailers.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud A clear preference for modern medicine was reflected in the frequent use of antimalarials. Yet, quality of case-management was far from satisfactory as was the functioning of the exemption mechanism for the main risk group. Private drug retailers played a central role by complementing existing formal health services in delivering antimalarial treatment. Health system factors like these need to be tackled urgently in order to translate the high efficacy of newly introduced artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) into equitable community-effectiveness and health-impact

Evaluation in artificial intelligence: From task-oriented to ability-oriented measurement

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s10462-016-9505-7.The evaluation of artificial intelligence systems and components is crucial for the progress of the discipline. In this paper we describe and critically assess the different ways AI systems are evaluated, and the role of components and techniques in these systems. We first focus on the traditional task-oriented evaluation approach. We identify three kinds of evaluation: human discrimination, problem benchmarks and peer confrontation. We describe some of the limitations of the many evaluation schemes and competitions in these three categories, and follow the progression of some of these tests. We then focus on a less customary (and challenging) ability-oriented evaluation approach, where a system is characterised by its (cognitive) abilities, rather than by the tasks it is designed to solve. We discuss several possibilities: the adaptation of cognitive tests used for humans and animals, the development of tests derived from algorithmic information theory or more integrated approaches under the perspective of universal psychometrics. We analyse some evaluation tests from AI that are better positioned for an ability-oriented evaluation and discuss how their problems and limitations can possibly be addressed with some of the tools and ideas that appear within the paper. Finally, we enumerate a series of lessons learnt and generic guidelines to be used when an AI evaluation scheme is under consideration.I thank the organisers of the AEPIA Summer School On Artificial Intelligence, held in September 2014, for giving me the opportunity to give a lecture on 'AI Evaluation'. This paper was born out of and evolved through that lecture. The information about many benchmarks and competitions discussed in this paper have been contrasted with information from and discussions with many people: M. Bedia, A. Cangelosi, C. Dimitrakakis, I. GarcIa-Varea, Katja Hofmann, W. Langdon, E. Messina, S. Mueller, M. Siebers and C. Soares. Figure 4 is courtesy of F. Martinez-Plumed. Finally, I thank the anonymous reviewers, whose comments have helped to significantly improve the balance and coverage of the paper. This work has been partially supported by the EU (FEDER) and the Spanish MINECO under Grants TIN 2013-45732-C4-1-P, TIN 2015-69175-C4-1-R and by Generalitat Valenciana PROMETEOII2015/013.José Hernández-Orallo (2016). Evaluation in artificial intelligence: From task-oriented to ability-oriented measurement. 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Wellbeing and chronic lung disease incidence: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe

Judith A. Okely and Catharine R. Gale are members of the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) and Medical Research Council (MRC) is gratefully acknowledged